摘要
通过分析2009-2013年11月天津港进口62%铁矿石粉矿现货CFR历史价格走势及主要影响因素,建立铁矿石价格指数平滑预测模型。预测结果显示,2014-2015年铁矿石价格仍会呈现先抑后扬的态势,但波动幅度相较2013年将更平缓。结合预测曲线以及将来全球可能出现的三种供需局势,对预测结果进行修正,即当2014-2015年全球供需形势与2013年相同时,铁矿石价格将按预测曲线的态势运行;当供大于求时,铁矿石价格将向LCL预测曲线靠拢,呈低位运行的趋势;当供小于求时,铁矿CFR价格预测曲线将像UCL预测曲线靠拢,呈高位运行的趋势。
By analyzing the CFR historical price movements and main inlfuence factors of 62% iron ore ifnes spot imported from Tianjing port between 2009 and November of 2013, index smoothing predictive model of iron ore prices has been established. The results show that iron ore prices in 2014-2015 will rises before inhibition, but comparing with the price volatility in 2013, it will be more gradual. Taking account of predication chart and the situation of supply and demand which may be occurred in the future all over the world, the predictions will be amended. This paper discusses the three situations, these are：when the global supply and demand situation of 2014-2015 is the same as that of 2013, iron ore prices will be run according to forecasting curve;when supply exceeds demand, iron ore prices will draw close to LCL prediction curve, and it is in the trend of the low;when demand is less than the supply, iron ore CFR price forecasting curve will get closer to LCL prediction curves, and it is in the trend of high.
出处
《中国国土资源经济》
2014年第2期51-54,61,共5页
Natural Resource Economics of China
