摘要
如何评价 R& D项目投资是 R& D管理中的一个重要议题。目前广泛采用的净现值法( NPV)已受到很多人的批评 ,而一种叫做“实物期权”的方法在 R& D领域的应用已越来越受到人们的重视。实物期权方法的一个很重要的特征就是能够灵活地评价项目未来的增长机会。而 NPV法却常常不能抓住所有的这些增长机会 ,导致 R& D的投资低下。本文应用实物期权理论分析了 R& D项目投资 ,将 R& D项目投资的不确定性归纳为三个随机过程 ,建立了求解 R& D投资机会价值的数学模型。
How to evaluate an R&D project is a crucial topic in R&D management. The use of net present value(NPV) analysis as the evaluation of R&D projects has aroused much doubts. The so called 'real options' method has gained growing attention on application in the field of R&D. Real options approach permits a more flexible assessment of the future growth opportunities. But the NPV method usually fails to capture all the future opportunities and leads to an under investment in R&D. The real options theory is applied to the R&D evaluation in this paper. The uncertainties of an R&D project are summarized into three stochastic processes. The value of the investment opportunity in R&D is then modeled.
出处
《系统工程》
CSCD
北大核心
2001年第1期10-14,共5页
Systems Engineering
基金
湖北省重点科技计划资助项目! ( 98P2 31 8)