基于多峰Hubbert模型的可再生能源产量趋势分析——以美国木材产量为例

Multi-Hubbert Modeling Based Production Trend Analysis for Renewable Energy: The USA's Wood Production Analysis

文中依据Hubbert模型研究分析美国可再生能源产量变化趋势,描绘出木材的多峰Hubbert曲线。结果表明:1)美国作为能源使用的木材产量整体上呈现钟形曲线变化趋势;2)在木材产量的多峰Hubbert曲线中,3条新增曲线的峰值以相同的周期逐期减半。文中还分析了木材产量趋势对能源供给的影响。

With wood as the example, the Hubbert model was used to study the production change trend of renewable energy in the USA, and draw the muhi-Hubbert curves for the production of wood that the USA use as energy. The results showed that： 1 ） Wood productions presented as bell-shaped curves; 2） In the muhi-Hubbert curves for wood production, the peaks of three new curves （1-12, 113, 114 ） were halved with the same cycle. Finally, the effects of wood production change on energy supply were analyzed.