技术进步对二氧化碳排放强度的影响研究

The Influence of Technical Progress on Carbon Dioxide Emission Intensity

本文基于DEA的分析方法测算了1990-2011年我国30个省市区的技术进步状况,然后运用面板数据模型的估计方法,分全国整体、分区域(东部、中部、西部)、分阶段(1990-2000年,2001-2011年),综合多因素实证检验了技术进步对二氧化碳排放强度的影响。结果显示:①从全国整体上来看,技术进步是降低二氧化碳排放强度的有效手段,外国投资对二氧化碳排放强度具有显著的负向影响,"污染避难所"假说不成立,而固定资产投资、城镇化、工业产值、人口变量则与二氧化碳排放强度显著正相关;②分区域来看,技术进步对二氧化碳排放强度的影响有着明显的区域差异,东西部地区的技术进步与二氧化碳排放强度显著负相关,中部地区则显著正相关。人口增长对三大区域二氧化碳排放强度的影响具有双向性;③分阶段考察显示,2000年之前,技术进步对全国及东中、西部地区二氧化碳排放强度的影响均为负,即技术进步可以降低全国及东中、西部地区的二氧化碳排放强度;2001年之后,技术进步对全国及东、中部地区二氧化碳排放强度影响为正,对西部地区二氧化碳排放强度的影响依然为负,即技术进步可能增加全国及东、中部地区二氧化碳排放强度,而降低西部地区的二氧化碳排放强度。

DEA methods were used to calculate total factor efficiency from 1990 to 2011 for China＇ s 30 provinces. We then used panel data model estimation methods to empirically test the effect of technical progress on CO2 emission intensity nationwide, different regions （eastern, middle and western） and at different stages （1990-2000 and 2001-2011）. We found that at the national level, technical progress is an effective measure to reduce carbon dioxide emission intensity. The effect of foreign direct investment on CO2 emission intensity is negative and the pollution haven hypothesis does not exist. The effect of fixed asset investment, urbanization, industrial output and population on CO2 emission intensity is positive. At the regional level, the effect of technical progress on CO2 emission intensity shows regional differences; the effect of technical progress on CO2 emission intensity in eastern and western China is negative, but positive in central China. Before 2000, the effect of technical progress on CO2 emission in the whole country and eastern, central and western China was negative and means that technical progress can reduce carbon dioxide emission intensity across the whole country. After 2001 the effect of technical progress on CO2 emission at the national level and for eastern and central China is positive, and negative in western China. Technical progress can increase carbon dioxide emission intensity of the whole country and eastern and central China, and reduce carbon dioxide emission intensity in western China.