产业转型背景下农业经济与农业劳动力耦合研究——以江苏省为例

Research on Coupling of Agricultural Economy and Agricultural Labour Force under the Background of Industry Transformation:A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

利用1990年、2000年和2010年江苏省县域农业产值与农业劳动力数据,基于GIS技术和模型方法,分析了县域农产值与农业劳动力变化态势及其时空耦合状态。研究表明:1)江苏省农业经济与劳动力数量耦合具有不协调性。1990-2010年江苏省县域农业产值呈上升态势,而劳动力总量呈先下降、后缓慢上升的态势。2)耦合类型区的划分揭示出江苏省农业劳动力和农业经济存在明显南北分异的空间格局。秦岭淮河一线是划分江苏省农业经济产值和农业劳动力时空格局的重要界限,界限以北大部分地区农业产值增加,而农业劳动力转移滞后,农业劳动力持续增长;其南部区域农业产值下降或缓慢上升,农业劳动力加速减少,属于增长型耦合区中的Ⅰ类型区。3)江苏省农业经济和农业劳动力耦合格局极化现象显著。

By using agricultural output and agricultural labor data of Jiangsu Province in 1990,2000 and 2010,the time and space coupling state of the agricultural output value and the trend of agricultural labor were analyzed based on GIS technology and model method.The study shows that：1） The coupling of agricultural economy in Jiangsu and the quantity of labor force has no coordination.From1990 to 2010,agricultural output value of Jiangsu increases,while the total labor force decreases first,and then slowly rises.From 1990 to 2000,the total agricultural output value increases by 72.9 ％ and the total labor force is reduced by 25.8％.From 2000 to 2010,the total agricultural output value increases by 68.4％,the total labor force increases by 9.8％.2） Type of coupling region reveals that agricultural labor and agricultural economy of Jiangsu exists obvious north-south differentiation.Qinling-Huaihe line is an important space boundary of agricultural output and agricultural labor force in Jiangsu.Agricultural output increases to the north of it,and agricultural labor transfers lags behind,agricultural labor force grows continuously,but the agricultural output changes slowly in southern region,agricultural labor force reduces quickly,which belongs to the Ⅰ type of growth type in the coupling region.3） The coupling pattern of agricultural economy and agricultural labor force in Jiangsu polarizes significantly.