中国珠三角盆地和日本关东盆地平地人口密度对比研究

Comparative Study of Population Density in Flat Area between the Pearl River Basin in China and Kanto Basin in Japan

改革开放以来,大量人口向珠三角盆地聚集,不断增加的人口负荷给区域可持续发展带来巨大压力,也给珠三角盆地国土承载力带来挑战。以中国珠三角盆地和日本关东盆地作为研究区,选取2地2000和2010年普查人口和国土面积数据,进行计算、分析和对比,认为用可居住的平地人口密度才能真实反映区域人口压力状况。研究结果表明,日本关东盆地人口增长率从1995年开始已降到0.5%,人口承载力接近饱和。以人口承载力接近饱和的日本关东盆地为参考对象,对比中国珠三角盆地和日本关东盆地的平地人口密度,2000年时中国珠三角盆地的平地人口密度低于日本关东盆地,珠三角盆地还有一定吸纳人口的能力;2010年时中国珠三角盆地的平地人口密度已超过日本关东盆地,其人口规模已经接近其国土承载力极限,进一步集聚人口的能力已经非常有限。依靠人口集聚发展劳动密集型产业推动经济增长的传统发展模式已经难以为继,转变经济发展方式势在必行。

The Pearl River Basin is located in south-central Guangdong Province, China. Covering Pearl River downstream, Pearl River Basin is surrounded by mountains and hills to its eastern, western and northern sides. There is an alluvial plain named Pearl River Delta in its central south built by mud and sands from the East River, West River and North River. Since China was carrying out Open and Reform policy in 1979, Pearl River Basin has experienced great growth in urbanization due to rapid social and economic development. A large amount of population moves to cities in Pearl River Basin for better and easier employment, sound environment for investment and good circumstances for living. As a result, the population density in Pearl River Delta rises year by year. However, the large population puts a great burden to cities and the rising population density leads to many problems like cities besieged by garbage, traffic congestion, water shortage, air pollution and climate change etc. These problems set an alarm for people and lead us to think of the following questions：Whether Pearl River Basin could sustain the current amount of population sustainably？ Does Pearl River Basin have the potential to sustain more people？ In order to find answers to those questions, this paper makes a comparative study of population density in relatively flat area between Pearl River Basin of China and Kanto Basin of Japan as the two regions are similar in geography and development function. Kanto Basin is located in south-central Honshu, Japan. It is famous for advanced economy, but also famous for the high density in population. Kyoto, once was the city with the highest population density, is one prefecture in Kanto Basin. From 1965 to 2005, the growth rate of population in Kanto Basin decreased year by year and dropped to 0.5%at 1995 and fluctuated little around 0.5%till 2010. What is more, at 2012, the growth rate of population in Kanto Basin dropped to 0.03%which means the number of people who migrate to Kanto Basin is nearly zero. This represents people would no longer like to migrate to cities in Kanto Basin maybe for the unsatisfied living condition or working environment. In other words, Kanto Basin could not sustain more people. The number of population and population density in Kanto Basin are at critical points. So this paper compares the population density in flat area between Pearl River Basin and Kanto Basin. And the conclusion is the population density in flat area of Pearl River Basin exceeds that of Kanto Basin in 2010 and the amount of population in Pearl River Basin is reaching its limit of carrying capacity. Pearl River Basin has little capacity to sustain more people.