跨境资本流动的影响因素及启示——基于BMA方法的研究

The Determinants of Cross-Border Capital Flows and its Policy Implications: An Empirical Study Based on the Bayesian Model Average Method

跨境资本流动及其影响因素是一个不断被定期重复研究的问题,且远没有形成定论。本文基于全球范围内52个国家或地区1980—2011年的跨国面板数据,对跨境资本流动的影响因素进行了重新评估和考察。在贝叶斯模型平均方法支撑下,本文选取了广泛的备选因素,重点研究了模型不确定下相关经济或政策变量对跨境资本流动的影响作用。本文上述研究得出的结论支撑了新古典经济学有关国际资本流动的理论预测,凸显了资本控制对资本流动的影响作用。此外,本文结合上海自贸区建设的进展,提供了针对资本项目开放以及跨境资本流动监控的政策建议。

Cross-border capital is an important issue in economic research, and until now researchers can not draw an undisputable conclusion on its determinants. This paper reconsiders and discusses the determinants of cross-border capital flows based on the cross-country data which includes 52 countries and regions over the period from 1980 to 2011.Using the Bayesian Model Averaging method, this paper shows that certain economic variables and policies play an important role in determining capital flows. The evidence supports the predictions on capital flows of new classical economics, and demonstrates the effects of capital controls. Finally, this paper gives some policy suggestions on the linearization of capital account and regulations of cross-border capital flows for Shanghai Free Trade Zone.