利用Logistic模型预测程控交换机容量发展

Forecasting Programmable Switchboard Capacity with Logistic Model

运用 Logistic模型的原理 ,在事先不知道饱和值 L的情况下 ,经过合理的线性变换 ,对原模型重新进行参数估计 ,并由此对我国城镇用程控交换机容量发展趋势作出了较为合理的预测 ,为通信业的发展预测。

The principle of Logistic Model is used.When the saturation value L is unknown,the parameters are re estimated after proper linear alternation.The new model is given to forecast Chinese urban programmable switchboard capacity.The method may be based as to make scientific decision for the communicating industry planning.