中国粮食出口影响因素实证研究

Empirical study on the determinants of China's grain export

利用计量经济模型,结合1991—2011年的相关数据对中国粮食出口影响因素进行了实证研究,结果发现,粮食贸易政策对我国粮食出口产生了显著影响,特别是1995年和1996年实施的粮食出口政策对粮食出口量产生了显著的负向影响,2008年以来我国实施的粮食出口控制措施对粮食出口量也产生了显著的负向影响。汇率和人均粮食产量对我国粮食出口都有显著的负向影响,国际粮价对我国粮食出口没有显著影响。最后提出了相应的对策建议。

This paper uses the econometric model and the data of 1991--2011 to make an empirical study on the determinants of China＇s grain export. The result shows that grain trade policy has a significant effect on China＇s grain export. The grain export policy which was adopted by China in 1995--1996 has a negative and significant effect on China＇ s grain export. The grain export restraint policy which was adopted by China after 2008 has also a negative and significant effect on China＇s grain export. Both foreign currency rate and grain output have a negative and significant effect on China＇ s grain export. International grain price has no significant effect on China＇s grain export. Based on the result, the paper puts forward some suggestions.