东亚地区治理机制的有效性评估与未来发展

An Assessment of the Effectiveness of the East Asian Regional Architecture and its Future Development

当前,东亚及亚太区域存在诸多错综复杂的地区性治理机制,如何衡量与评估现有治理机制的有效性,并在此基础上审视和规划未来的区域治理机制,成为有待探讨的重要领域。地区治理机制有效性评估是指通过科学严谨的方法、程序、标准和措施来比较可观察到或可预测到的绩效。文章以目标获得、行为改变、问题解决和集体最优这四个角度作为一级评估指标,在此基础上,将问题程度、权力分配、机制能力、行为趋势、条款运用以及机制动力作为二级评估指标,发展一个相对全面的评估指标体系。这些指标体系试图分析给定问题领域的区域机制是否有效,即对东亚治理机制是否有效这一命题进行变量分析。研究显示,在目前东亚地区治理机制中,东盟、"10+3"与RCEP的有效性最高,而EAS、ARF与APEC的有效性最低,其他机制(TPP、GMS以及中日韩合作)的有效性程度总体居中。就未来发展而言,东亚地区各种不同的机制很难构建成一个全面统一的治理机制,各种机制竞相发展、相互竞争将是未来东亚机制的常态。其中,尤其以TPP、RCEP以及中日韩合作三个治理架构的演进最具关键意义。为此,需要积极研判中国的战略方针与政策选择,客观审视东亚治理机制各自不同的发展情况,及早进行谋划。

East Asia and the Asia Pacific Region are characterized by a large number of complex and overlapping institutions.How to assess the effectiveness of these institutions,and how to use these to envision and plan the governance institutions of the future has become an important area for research.A scientific and rigorous assessment of the effectiveness of regional institutions functions to compare observable or predictable results applying scientific methods and standards.This article takes the following four criteria as a basis for making such an assessment:obtaining objectives,changing behavior,resolving problems and collective optimization.With this as a basis,it identifies the level of the issue,distribution of power,institutional capacity,behavioral tendencies,application of rules,and institutional drivers as second tier indicators,thereby developing a comprehensive set of indices for assessment.Through quantitative analysis,this is applied to determine whether East Asian governance institutions are effective.The results show that of East Asian institutions,ASEAN,10+3 and RCEP are the most effective,while EAS,ARF and APEC are more limited in effectiveness.Other institutions(TPP,GMS and China-Japan-S.Korea Cooperation)have a moderate level of effectiveness.In the future,it will be difficult for the disparate institutions providing regional governance to be molded into a comprehensive governance mechanism,as various institutions will trend towards competition with one another as they develop.Of the various institutions,TPP,RCEP and China-Japan-S.Korea Cooperation will be the most critical as they evolve.As such,we must positively consider China's strategy direction and policy choices,and be objective in our consideration of the development of the East Asia region's disparate governance institutions.