上海自贸区离岸金融中心建设的系统性金融风险研究

The Research on Systemic Risk of the Offshore Financial Center Construction in Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone

本文以香港人民币离岸金融中心为研究对象,实证检验了离岸金融中心对于在岸金融市场的风险溢出效应。实证结果表明,香港人民币离岸金融中心加剧了在岸金融市场的系统性金融风险,特别地,其对于境内货币市场、债券市场与外汇市场存在长期的风险溢出。因此,监管层有必要加强离岸金融中心的风险监管。本文从离岸金融中心所在国、货币发行国与离岸金融机构母国三方面,总结了成熟离岸金融中心风险监管的国际经验,为上海自贸区人民币离岸金融中心的系统性金融风险监管提供借鉴。

The paper makes an empirical research to check whether the there is systemic risk spillover from Hong Kong RMB offshore financial centre to onshore financial market in China mainland. The result indicates that Hong Kong aggravates the systemic risk of onshore financial market. Especially for onshore currency market, bond market and exchange market, there is spillover effect for a long period. There is necessary for regulators to enhance the risk regulation. The paper summarizes the international regulation experience of adult offshore financial markets, which provides a reference for risk regulation of China（Shanghai） pilot free trade zone.