基于季节性因素的安全生产灰色时序分析预测—以陕西省为例

Grey and time series analysis and prediction of occupational safety based on seasonal factors: a case study of Shanxi province

为了探索安全生产和季节性因素的关系,建立X-12-ARIMA模型对2007-2012年安全生产月度数据进行分析,得到了分离季节性影响之后的时间序列、不规则因素、季节性因素和趋势循环因素,在此基础上建立考虑季节性因素的安全生产灰色SARIMA预测模型。研究结果表明,陕西省工矿商贸领域的安全生产受季节性因素的影响,每年的7月和12月是陕西省安全生产受到季节性影响最严重的月份;SARIMA预测结果与实际的陕西省安全生产走势较为吻合,精度较为可靠。研究结果对安全监管和安全生产政策制定有一定的指导意义。

In order to study the relations between occupational safety and seasonal factors, a X-12-ARIMA model was established to analyze the occupational safety data from 2007 to 2012. The time series after separating seasonal factors, irregular factors, seasonal factors and trends circulating factors were obtained, and a grey SARIMA model based on seasonal factors of occupational safety in Shaanxi Province was built. The result showed that occupational safety in Shaanxi Province suffered most in July and December every year,the prediction result was consistent with occupational safety trend in Shaanxi Province, and the accuracy of result was reliable. The study has a guiding sig- nificance to safety supervision and policy.