北京市能源消费与碳排放现状、预测及低碳发展路径选择

The Current Situation and Prediction of Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions,and Way Choice of Low Carbon Development in Beijing

在资源环境约束下,在快速城市化进程中,实现低碳发展是北京市城市发展的主导方向。笔者对北京市全市及各产业碳排放现状进行调查评价,运用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型,对北京市未来十年全市及各产业碳排放状况进行预测分析。在此基础上,分析北京市低碳发展所面临的问题和优势、挑战和机遇,研究实现北京市低碳强度目标下的低碳发展战略,探讨北京市低碳发展路径选择。

Abstract： Under the limitation of environmental resource and the process of rapid urbanization, achieving a lowcarbon development is the orientation of Beijing urban development. This paper investigates the present carbon emissions situation in Beijing and each industry. By applying grey system GM （ 1, 1） model, it predicts the carbon emissions situation of Beijing and each industry over the next decade. On that basis, it analyses the problems and advantages, challenges and opportunities faced by low-carbon development in Beijing, and researches the low carbon development strategy under low-carbon intensity target and discusses the best way choice of low-carbon development in Beijing.