基于SIR模型的微博信息扩散规律仿真分析

Microblog Information Diffusion:Simulation Based on SIR Model

微博作为一个爆炸式传播信息的社会化媒体受到了越来越多人的关注,掌握微博信息的扩散规律可以对不良信息传播进行有效监管。本文采用易感者、传染者及免疫者(SIR)模型将微博用户分成未转发用户、已转发用户和已淹没用户三类,成功模拟了微博用户的转发行为。通过Matlab仿真得到微博信息扩散过程的曲线,发现了微博中信息扩散的主要规律。基于仿真结果的分析,对微博管理提出了政策建议。

As a powerful and new information dissemination social media, microblog has got increasing attention. Finding patterns of information diffusion of microblog, vicious information will be effectively regulated. Users of microblogs are divided into three categories： not-forwarding users, forwarding users and overwhelming users based on the susceptible, infected and removed （SIR） model, which can successfully simulate users＇ information forwarding behavior. By using Matlab, the microblog information diffusion curves and patterns are found out. Based on simulation results, policy recommendations are put forward in the end.