美国“能源独立”的地缘政治影响分析

Analysis of the Geopolitical Influences of America's “Energy Independence”

美国本土非常规油气产量自2008年以来取得爆发式增长,带动了美国综合能源自给率不断提高,美国有望在15—20年内实现"能源独立"。这一变化将深刻影响到全球地缘政治格局,美国的超级大国地位将得以巩固。美洲崛起为世界新的能源供应中心,同时亚洲成为新的能源消费中心,全球能源贸易流向发生逆转。美国将摆脱中东石油负担,强化与欧亚盟友的关系,战略重心更加东移,其全球战略有可能进行有限度的收缩。世界部分资源型国家将面临政局不稳定压力,包括中国在内的新兴经济体挑战与机遇并存。美国"能源独立"给中国发展带来的机遇大于挑战,客观上有利于中国提高在国际事务中的影响力。

The explosive grow th of domestic unconventional oil & gas production since 2008 leads to continuous grow th of U.S. comprehensive energy self-sufficiency rate. America's'Energy Independence'w ill be realized in 15 to 20 years,w hich w ill bring profound changes to global geopolitics. The superpow er status of the U. S. w ill be reinforced. The rise of the American Continent as new energy supply center and Asia as consumption centers w ill cause the global energy trade flow s to reverse. The U. S. w ill shed its'oil burden'in the M iddle East and strengthen the relationship w ith its European and Asian allies. It's likely to have a limited strategic contraction and its focus may further shift to the East. Thus,some resource-rich countries may face the threats of internal turmoil and the emerging economies w ill be confronted w ith challenges as w ell as opportunities. The U. S. 'Energy Independence'w ill bring more opportunities to China than threats and w ill benefit China in boosting its influence in international affairs.