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台湾及邻区M_b≥4.0地震受月相调制的时空统计研究 被引量:7

Lunar Modulation for M_b≥4.0 Earthquakes in the Taiwan Region and Its Vicinity: Phenomena and Statistics in Temporal-Spatial Domain
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摘要 本文分析了台湾及邻近地区 (116°~ 12 6°E ,18°~ 2 8°N)地震活动与月相角的相关关系。所用目录来自EngdahlE .R .等 (1998)修正后的全球地震目录 ,挑选 1964年 1月 1日至 1999年 12月 31日Mb ≥ 4 0地震目录共 2 611条。将历次地震的GMT发震时刻转换成月亮黄经λm和太阳黄经λs,得到发震时刻的月相角D =λm -λs,其中λm 采用 10 5阶多项式展开。统计D±0 5°(D =0 360°)范围内发生在台湾及邻近地区的地震频次 ,结果显示 ,地震频次高于均值的 2倍标准偏差的月相角大约在D≈ 5 0°、D≈ 5 0° + 90°和D≈ 5 0° + 180°上。这 3个角度大约对应第4、12、19太阳日 ,比上弦、望以及下弦大约偏离了 5 0°。统计分析显示 ,地震频次在月相角上的分布有较尖锐的波峰出现 ,即台湾地区地震活动与月相角明显相关。从朔起算 ,以 12°为一太阳日 ,统计每个太阳日及其前后 1日内每个 0 5°× 0 5°子区域中的发震概率和地震蠕变释放概率 ,结果发现 ,在人口密集聚居的台湾岛上 ,造成重大灾害的中强地震在从朔起算的第 4个太阳日附近发生的概率是其余时段的 4倍。特殊地区对月相角的强烈响应为防震减灾和地震预测提供了背景性依据 ,也使准确的发震时刻预测更加艰难。 The co-relationship between seismicity in the Taiwan Region and its vicinity (116°~126°E,18°~28°N) and the moon phase angles is investigated in this paper. The earthquake data is from revised EHB worldwide earthquake catalogue (Engdahl, E. R., 1998), and 2611 M b≥4 0 events are selected during Jan. 1, 1964 to Dec. 31, 1999. GMT time of each event is changed into lunar astronomic longitude (λ m) and solar astronomic longitude (λ s), and the moon phase angle of the event is calculated with D=λ m-λ s, in which λ m is calculated with a 105-order polynomial. Frequency, creep and average depths of the events within D±0 5°(D=1 360°) are investigated and we find that optimal angles for frequency over double standard deviations are around 50°, 50°+90° and 50°+180°, which are around the 4 th , 12 th and 19 th solar days after the full moon, and are about 50° of offset after quadratures and full moon. Earthquake frequency changes with D by sharp peaks, showing positive relationship between seismicity in the studied area and moon phases. Taking every 12° after the full moon as a solar day, the probability of events and creep release in each 0 5°×0 5° spatial boxes within each solar day and its former and later days are calculated. Statistical analysis shows that the probability of hazardous earthquakes on the Taiwan island around the 4th solar day is 4 times higher than the average. Significant response of strong earthquakes to moon phases in special areas might provide background for earthquake forecasting and hazard mitigation, but also get the puzzle of earthquake prediction into a narrow way.
出处 《中国地震》 CSCD 北大核心 2001年第2期210-220,T002,共12页 Earthquake Research in China
基金 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目<大陆强震机理与预测>的资助
关键词 台湾 月相 调制 相关分析 地震活动 地震预报 发震时刻 Taiwan Moon phase Modulation Co-relation analysis
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参考文献5

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  • 2Kao H,J Geophys Res,2000年,105卷,3059页
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