国际碳价波动与中国能源价格相关性研究

Research on the Relationship between International Carbon Price Fluctuation and China’s Energy Price

本文研究了国际碳价波动影响中国能源价格的机制路径,并选取国际碳价和中国能源价格指标进行实证检验。结果表明:中国能源价格走势与国际碳价走势呈现出趋同效应,中国能源价格和国际碳排放价格之间存在着长期稳定的协整关系,国际碳排放价格与中国能源价格互为格兰杰原因。研究结果认为,中国应加快能源相关资源价格改革,促进能源相关产业发展,防范能源价格波动和碳价波动形成的叠加效应。同时,建议逐步形成和完善国际、国内碳价联动机制。

This paper studies the logical path of international carbon price fluctuations affecting China’s energy prices, and selects international carbon prices and China’s energy price indicators for empirical test. The results show that the trend of China’s energy price and international carbon price is basically the same. There is a long-term stable cointegration relationship between China’s energy price and international carbon price. The international carbon price and China’s energy price are Granger’s reasons. The research results suggest that China should accelerate the reform of energy-related resource prices, promote the development of energy-related industries, and prevent the overlapping effects of energy price fluctuations and carbon price fluctuations. At the same time, it is recommended to gradually form and improve the international and domestic carbon price linkage mechanism.