农地抵押贷款促进农户创业决策了吗?——农地抵押贷款政策预期与执行效果的偏差检验

Does Farmland Mortgage Loans Promote Farmers' Entrepreneurial Decision?Deviation Test between the Expectation and Implementation Effect of Farmland Mortgage Loans Policy

本文从土地流转效应、劳动力配置效应、资产配置效应和收入增长效应四个方面阐释了农地抵押贷款影响农户创业决策的机理,并依据陕西、宁夏农村承包土地的经营权抵押融资改革典型和一般试点地区1325户农户调查数据,运用倾向得分匹配法(PSM),实证探究了农地抵押贷款对农户创业决策的影响效应及其作用路径,验证了农地抵押贷款政策预期与执行效果的一致性。研究结果表明:农地抵押贷款政策执行效果未偏离政策预期,即农地抵押贷款显著促进了农户创业尤其是农业创业,农地抵押贷款参与促使农户创业概率和农业创业概率平均提高15. 63%和11. 10%;且农地抵押贷款对受教育程度为高中及以上、兼业型、规模经营农户创业尤其是农业创业的影响效应更明显。研究还证实,农地抵押贷款参与可通过显著促进创业农户土地流转决策、推动长短期劳动力雇佣和生产环节外包、提升年周转现金持有量、增加创业毛收入和纯收入进而影响农户创业决策实施。

This article explains the impact mechanism of farmland mortgage loans on farmers' entrepreneurial decisionmaking from four aspects,land transfer effect,labor allocation effect,asset allocation effect and income growth effect,and then empirically explores the effect of farmland mortgage loans on farmers'entrepreneurial decision and its paths ,which also reveals the consistency of policy intention and practice effect of farmland mortgage loans on the basis of the survey data of 1325 farmers from typical and general pilot areas about farmland contract management rights mortgage in Shaanxi and Ningxia Province,and the propensity score matching method is employed.The results show that the practical use of farmland mortgage loans does not deviate from the policy expectations on the whole,that is,farmland mortgage loans significantly promote farmers'entrepreneurship,especially agricultural entrepreneurship.The participation of farmland mortgage loans would increase the probability of farmers'entrepreneurship and agricultural entrepreneurship by 15.63% and 11.10%,while the entrepreneurial effect and agricultural entrepreneurship effect of farmland mortgage loans are more significantly for samples with education level of senior high school or above,part-time household and scale farmers.What's more,the participation of farmland mortgage loans can significantly accelerate the decision-making about farmland transfer for entrepreneurial farmers,promote a long-term and short-term employment and the outsourcing of several production links,improve the holdings of annual turnover cash,increase the total income and net income of the venture,which then influence farmers'entrepreneurial decision.