舟山地区流感样病例的气象影响因素

Association of meteorological factors with influenza-like illness in Zhoushan

目的探讨舟山海岛地区流感样病例(ILI)与气象因素的关联性。方法收集2015—2017年舟山市ILI发病资料和周气象资料,利用Spearman秩相关和多元回归法分析气象因素与ILI的关系。结果舟山市ILI周发病人数与前4周平均气压、周日照时数和前2周平均极大风速呈正相关(r=0.180、0.258和0.170,P均<0.05),与周平均降水量和周平均相对湿度呈负相关(r=-0.266和-0.180,P均<0.05),而与周平均气温、周平均水汽压、周平均风速等均无线性相关关系(P均 >0.05)。回归模型分析显示,周平均气压和周日照时数是ILI发病的主要气象影响因素(P均<0.05),均呈正相关关系。标准回归系数比较表明,作用大小为周平均相对湿度(0.584) >周日照时数(0.184) >前4周平均气压(0.166)。结论舟山海岛地区ILI与气象因素相关,其中相对湿度、气压和日照时数是影响舟山海岛地区ILI的主要气象因素。

Objective To analyze the correlation between meteorological factors and influenza-like illness (ILI) in Zhoushan.Methods Data of ILI and meteorological factors in Zhoushan from 2015 to 2017 were collected.Spearman correlation assay and stepwise regression were used to identify the meteorological factors which affecting incidence of ILI.Results There were positive correlations between weekly average air pressure 4 weeks before, weekly sunshine hours, weekly extreme wind speed 2 weeks before and ILI incidence (r=0.180, 0.258 and 0.170, P all<0.05) . There were negative correlations between weekly average precipitation, weekly relative humidity and ILI incidence (r=-0.266 and-0.180, P all<0.05) . However, there were no line correlation between weekly average temperature, vapor pressure, wind speed and ILI incidence (P all >0.05) . Regression model analysis suggested that weekly average relative humidity, air pressure and sunshine hours were the main meteorological factors (P all<0.05) , which were all positively correlated with ILI incidence. The power of impact in proper order was relative humidity (0.584) , sunshine hours (0.184) and air pressure (0.166) .Conclusions There are significant associations between meteorological factors and ILI in Zhoushan island. The relative humidity, air pressure and sunshine hours are the main meteorological factors influencing the incidence of ILI.