财税政策波动如何影响中国制造业转型升级——基于信息不对称和目标冲突视角的分析

Impact of Fiscal and Taxation Policy Fluctuations on Transformation and Upgrading of China's Manufacturing Industry: On Information Asymmetry and Goal Conflict Perspectives

从政企信息不对称和中央与地方政府目标冲突视角出发,理论分析了财税政策波动对中国制造业转型升级的影响,通过利用2006—2015年省级数据构建制造业转型升级指标评价体系,最终利用截面回归和加入时间交互项的面板回归方法进行了计量检验。研究发现:(1)科技含量、产业优化能力、要素生产效率和需求侧支持力度是中国制造业发展的关键因素;(2)相较于财政支出政策,制造业发展对税收政策调整更为敏感,其中增值税、企业所得税政策波动与各子系统及综合评价得分呈现显著负相关关系;(3)政府R&D支出政策的波动在短期抑制了制造业的发展潜力,在时间累积效应下作用并不显著;(4)政府一般性制造业事务财政支出政策的波动在短期和时间累积效应下均会促进制造业由"要素驱动"、"数量累积"向"创新驱动"、"质量跃进"转变。鉴于此,应构建"功能型"和"服务型"政府维持财税政策稳定并防止寻租行为滋生。

This article discusses the impacts of fiscal and taxation policy fluctuations on the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry development from the enterprise information asymmetry and the central and local government goal conflict perspectives,establishes the index evaluation system by using provincial data from 2006 to 2015,and uses cross-section regression and join time interaction of panel regression method to inspect the assumption propositions. The study finds that:( 1) the content of science and technology,the industrial optimization ability,the efficiency of production factors and efforts to demand side support are the key problems to solve of China's manufacturing industry.( 2) Comparing to fiscal policy,manufacturing development is more sensitive to tax policy adjustment,the value-added tax,and enterprise income tax policy fluctuation show s significant negative correlation w ith each subsystem and the comprehensive evaluation scores.( 3) In the short term,the government R&D expenditure policy fluctuations held back the development potential of manufacturing,and there is no significant effect under the time cumulative effect.( 4) Fluctuations in general manufacturing government affairs fiscal expenditure policy have promoted the manufacturing from the "factor driven"and "quantity accumulation"to "innovation driven"and "leap forw ard". In view of this,"functional"and"service-oriented"government should be constructed to maintain the fiscal and taxation policy stability and prevent rent-seeking behavior breeding of policy Suggestions.