证据整理与假设评估:侦查阶段的事实认定问题研究

Evidence Collation and Hypothesis Evaluation:A Study on Fact Determination in Investigation Stage

侦查阶段事实认定的推进是一个模糊和复杂的过程。在本质上,其推进是"从某个特定的假设将解释现有证据这一事实,到该假设为真"的论证,是一个创造性使用已知信息形成有待进一步调查(侦查)证实的假设的过程。它包含了证据整理与假设评估两个关键性阶段,这一阶段性划分除有助于辨识侦查思维的经验性和开放性特征外,更提供了重新审视并优化侦查阶段事实认定活动的关键步骤。通过对威格莫尔"论证建构方法"的拆解分析,描绘了侦查人员面对大量证据信息时证据整理和假设评估的过程,这个互动的思维推进过程不仅是假设的形成以及特定溯因推理的展开,更是论证构建过程本身。科学系统的证据整理和精细化假设评估在保障侦查阶段事实认定活动的准确性和可操作性方面具有重要价值。

The advance of fact determination in the investigation stage is a vague and complicated process.In essence,it advances the argument that "from the fact that a particular hypothesis will explain the existing evidence to the fact that the hypothesis is true ".It is a process of creatively using the known information to form a hypothesis to be confirmed by further investigation.It includes two key stages:evidence collation and hypothesis evaluation.This division of stages not only helps to identify the empirical and open features of investigative thinking,but also provides the key steps to re-examine and optimize the fact identification activities in investigation stage.By disassembling and analyzing Wigmore ’s "Method of Argumentation Construction ",this paper is intended to describe the process of evidence collation and hypothesis evaluation when investigators are faced with a large amount of evidence information.This interactive thinking process is not only the formation of hypothesis and the expansion of specific retroactive reasoning,but also the process of argumentation construction itself.Scientific and systematic evidence collation and refined hypothesis evaluation are of great value in ensuring the accuracy and operability of fact identification activities in investigation stage.