省际迁入人口空间分布及其影响因素研究

Spatial Distribution and Influential Factors of Inter-provincial Population Moving into

以胡焕庸线以东地区为研究区域、地级市域为基本研究单元,基于人口普查数据,研究了迁入人口的空间分布。并选取植被覆盖度、城镇建设用地面积、年末总人口、第三产业生产总值占国内生产总值的比重四个影响省际人口迁入的因子,利用地理加权回归模型和OLS模型进行了定量分析。省际迁入人口的空间分布具有明显的不均衡性,形成了以长三角地区、珠三角、京津冀为主要迁入目的地,各省会城市为第二大迁入目的地,其余城市迁入总体偏低的格局;植被覆盖度对人口迁入的正向影响主要分布在中国中东部,高值区出现在与北京、天津相邻的河北中部的地市,环境因素对人口迁入的优势作用在这些地区比较明显;增加城镇建设用地面积促进城镇化发展,是各地区增强迁入吸引力的重要举措,有利于促进人口合理分配缩小经济差距;年末总人口的增加对人口迁入的影响有正有负,且在京津冀和珠三角为负说明人口的迁入给该地区带来了沉重的负担,该地区就业市场趋于饱和;在长三角为正说明人口的迁入对长三角的经济仍然是积极作用,未来长三角仍将是人口迁入的潜力区域;增加第三产业生产总值占比对研究区内绝大部分地区来说是正向影响,可见第三产业在扩大就业缓解就业压力,促进人口迁入等方面还有一定的潜力可挖;中国省际人口迁入受经济、人口因素影响大,受环境因素影响较小。基于分析结果对不同地区的发展提出不同建议。

Prefecture-level city in east of Hu Line areas as me Daslc research unit,of vegetation coverage,built-up urban areas,total population at the end of the year,the ratio of tertiary industry's.GDP as independent variables,using the geographic weighted regression model,the influencing factors of the inter-provincial immigrants were quantitatively analyzed.The results show that,the spatial distribution of the inter-provincial in-migration population is obviously imbalance,forming a pattern that the Yangtze River Delta region,the Pearl River Delta,and the Beijing-Tianjin-Wing are the main destinations for migration and the provincial capitals are the second largest destinations,while the remaining cities are generally low;the positive influence of vegetation coverage on migration is mainly distributed in the central and eastern of China,the high value areas appear in the cities adjacent to Beijing and Tianjin in the,middle of Hebei Province,the advantage of environmental factors on population in-migration has begun to-appear in these areas;increasing the built-up urban area will be an important measure for enhancing the attraction of migration in various regions and will be conducive to promoting a rational distribution of population and narrowing the economic gap;the increase in the total population at the end of.the year has positive and negative effects on the migration of the population,and it is negative in the Beijing-Tianjin-Yan and the Pearl River Delta that the migration of the population has brought a heavy burden to the region,and the employment market in the region has become saturated;the Yangtze River Delta positively illustrates that the migration of the population is sill/positive to the Yangtze River Delta economy,in the future,the Yangtze River Delta will continue to be the most densely populated region;inereasing the pro-portion of GDP in the tertiary industry is a positive influence on most of the regions in the study area,showing that there is still some potential for the tertiary industry to expand employment and relieve employment pressure,relations among the three industries must be properly handled so that they are mutually reinforcing and mutually reinforcing;the inter-provincial migration in China is greatly affected by the economy and population and is less affected by environmental factors.Based on the analysis results,this paper gives different suggestions on the economic development in different regions.