国际大型银行兴衰变化与银行可持续发展规律研究

A Study of the Rise and Fall of Big International Banks and the Law of Banking Sustainable Development

本文通过梳理国际大型银行过去20年的排名变化,特别是日本、法国一些大型银行发展进程中的失败教训,探讨总结了国际大型银行由盛转衰的原因:一是宏观环境变化直接影响银行起落,泡沫经济破灭带来多重负面冲击;二是盲目扩张规模导致风险过度累积,使银行发展的可持续性十分脆弱;三是过度倚赖总量扩张规模效应,发展战略调整滞后,导致银行缺乏有效的应变能力。国际大型银行发展经验与教训表明,规模扩张不应当成为金融机构追求的主要目标。要保持长远发展,就必须摒弃总量扩张的思维,提高发展的内涵和品质,由做大转而谋求做强。

Based on the survey of the changes in the international ranking of big banks during the past 20 years, especially the failures of Japanese and French big banks in developmental process, this paper analyses the reasons that big banks decline. The reasons are as follows： （1） changes in macro-economy directly influence the rise or fall of big banks and the collapse of bubble economy results in adverse impacts on banks; （2） blindly expanding leads to excessive risk accumulation and thus impairs the sustainable development of banks; （3） over-reliance on the scale effects of expansion and lagging adjustment in developmental strategy weaken the adaptability of banks. The experience of big international banks in developmental process shows that scale expansion should not be a major goal of financial institution. To maintain a long-term development, it is necessary to abandon expansion strategy and improve developmental quality and efficiency so as to make banks strong rather than big.