危险货物运输风险评估研究动态

Developments in research on assessment of risk in hazardous materials transportation

为研究各危险货物运输模式的优劣及其风险评估问题的动态,系统分析国内外危险货物运输风险评估模型和方法,梳理对国内外单一运输模式以及多式联运危险货物运输风险评估问题的相关研究,并通过算例分析各风险评估模型的特点。结果表明:危险货物道路运输风险评估模型研究较为完善,铁路和联运风险评估模型研究较为缺乏;危险货物铁路运输和联运模式风险低于道路运输风险;条件风险价值(CVaR)模型可为决策者提供灵活的决策框架,且能将风险偏好控制在风险中性和风险厌恶之间,可应用于危险货物运输决策中。

In order to illustrate the pros and cons of each hazardous materials transportation mode, and point out research process of risk assessment models, models and methods of hazmat transportation risk assessment at home and abroad were reviewed systematically. Researches on risk assessment were tidied up for hazardous materials transportation through unimodal and multimodal. Characteristics of risk assessment models were analyzed by setting an example. Results show that researches on hazmat transportation risk assessment models on road are comparatively perfect, that there is still lack of researches on railroad and multimodal transportation, that railroad and multimodal transportation of hazmat is much safer than road transportation, and that CVaR model provides a flexible framework for decision makers, and this model only covers from risk-neutral to risk-averse paths, which is suitable for hazmat transportation decision making.