霸权的印象管理——地位信号、地位困境与美国亚太再平衡战略

Image Management of a Hegemon:Status Signaling,Status Dilemma,and U.S. Rebalancing to Asia

霸权的兴衰是国际关系的一个核心问题。冷战结束以来,美国能否维持其霸权成为国际关系学界一个重要的争议问题。对美国霸权的研究有不同的理论角度。围绕一个霸权国在国际秩序变动中如何管理其在国内外观众心目中的印象这一问题,作者以美国亚太再平衡战略为例,分析美国作为霸权国的行为模式。通过亚太再平衡战略,奥巴马政府试图巩固美国的霸权地位。美国亚太再平衡面临不同观众的期待,这些观众主要包括中国、美国的亚太盟友和美国的国内观众。在信号传导过程中,针对一类目标观众的信号可能被另一类目标观众同时接受并做出不同的解读。同时,中美关系面临地位困境的挑战:一方试图维持其相对位置的行为,导致另一方做出对应反应,双方耗费不必要的资源展开竞争但并不改变原有的地位排序。美国对于维护既有霸权地位具有强烈的偏好,而一个不够自信的美国可能给中美关系带来新的风险。中美在亚太地区如何包容彼此的角色,需要两国持续探索。

The rise and fall of hegemonic powers is a key issue in international relations.Since the end of the Cold War,it has been heatedly debated if the United States could maintain its hegemonic status.There are various approaches to studying the hegemony of the United States.Using the case of U.S.rebalancing to Asia to illustrate the behavioral pattern of the U.S.as a hegemon,this article tries to investigate the following questions;how could a hegemon manage its image in front of domestic and international audiences during the period of international change? Through rebalancing to Asia,the Obama Administration tries to consolidate U.S.hegemonic status in the Asia-Pacific region.The U.S.rebalancing is facing the challenges brought by multiple audiences,including China,U.S.allies in Asia-pacific region,and American domestic audience.Signals targeted at one type of audience are often interpreted by other audiences in a different way.In the meantime,Sino-American relations face the problem of status dilemma;one side tries to maintain its existing status,and the other side would respond accordingly;both sides waste resources to compete while the original hierarchic order might not change.The United States has a strong preference to maintain its hegemonic status,and an unconfident America might lead to new instability in Sino-American relations.It is crucial for China and the United States to explore how they might accommodate each other'role in the Asia-pacific region.