气候变化对我国白枕鹤繁殖地分布的影响

Impact of Climate Change on Distribution of Breeding Places of White-Naped Crane in China

基于白枕鹤(Grus vipio)在我国东北地区繁殖地分布数据,以温度、降水等数据作为预测的环境因子,利用最大熵模型(Maxent)预测白枕鹤在我国东北地区的繁殖地潜在分布。在此基础上耦合3种大气环流模型,同时结合2种气候情景,预测气候变化对我国东北白枕鹤繁殖地分布的影响。结果表明,在未来气候变化情景下,白枕鹤的繁殖地分布范围有减少趋势,且分布地区向北及向西移动。其中,A2情景变化程度大于B2情景,向北及向西移动的趋势更加明显,显示气候变化对白枕鹤繁殖地分布有显著影响。

Based on the data of the distribution of white-naped crane(Grus vipio) breeding areas in Northeast China and the environmental factors including temperature and precipitation,potential distribution of white-naped crane breeding areas in Northeast China was predicted using the Maximum Entropy Model( Maxent). On such a basis,coupled with three atmospheric circulation models and two climatic scenarios,impacts of climate change on the distribution of white-naped crane breeding areas were predicted,too. Results show that in the future scenarios of changed climate,the distribution of white-naped crane breeding areas would decrease in area and move towards north and west. The change in Scenario A2 was greater than that in Scenario B2,and the trend of moving towards north and west more obvious. It can be concluded that climate change has a distinct impact on the distribution of white-naped crane breeding areas in Northeast China.