基于技术减排的碳排放总量控制优化模型研究

Research on optimization model for total carbon emission control under technology control of carbon emission

文章以低碳经济理论为依据,在基于结构减排的碳排放总量控制优化模型基础上,将与低碳经济发展相关的九大类行业所涉及的能源类别对应的碳排放量作为研究对象,以预期年碳排放量最小为优化目标,预期年碳减排目标、能源消费总成本、各行业能源消耗量等作为约束条件,运用传统线性规划数学方法,建立基于技术减排的碳排放总量控制优化模型。模型优化结果显示,在运用低碳技术改变能源利用方式后,基于技术减排的优化方案2020年碳排放总量为959 817.17×104t,单位GDP碳排放为1.68 t/104元,较基于结构减排的优化方案降低了13.40%,表明相对于结构减排的优化方案尚具有一定的碳减排空间,为低碳经济发展提供了理论依据和决策支持。

In this paper, according to low carbon economy （LCE） theory, several energy types of nine categories LCE related industries were selected as research objects on the basis of optimization model of total carbon emission control under structure control of carbon emission. Utilizing tradi- tional liner programming mathematical methods, taking the minimum carbon emission of the expect- ed year as optimal objective, taking carbon emission reduction target, total cost of energy consump- tion, industry energy consumption of the expected year as constrain condition, an optimization mod- el of total carbon emission under technology control of carbon emission was built. The optimization results showed that with the energy utilization pattern converted by low carbon technology, the total carbon emission of the optimization scheme under technology control in 2020 was 959 817.17x104 tons, while the carbon emission per unit of GDP was 1.68 tons/104 yuan, dropping 13.40% compared with the Optimization scheme under structure control. It indicated that the optimization scheme un- der technology control of carbon emission had a more capacious carbon reduction space, providing theoretical evidence and decision-support for LCE development.