重庆市“单独二孩”政策背景下二孩生育意愿及相关因素分析

Investigation on fertility intention and influencing factors under new fertility policy in Chongqing

目的：了解重庆市民在＂单独二孩＂生育政策背景下的二孩生育意愿及其影响因素,为完善生育政策提供建议。方法：于2014年1-3月,采用多阶段概率抽样,使用自行设计问卷调查重庆市5个区县877名城乡居民二孩生育意愿;运用SAS 9.13分析软件进行资料统计和分析,进行多组有序变量资料的秩和检验,以是否生育二孩的二项分类变量为因变量进行多因素非条件logistic回归分析。结果：不同民族、文化程度、婚育情况、职业等人群二孩生育意愿比较差异均有统计学意义（χ2分别为0.037、15.85、9.82、18.98,P均〈0.05）。将各因素采用逐步回归法引入回归模型,经筛选后,有3个因素进人回归模型,即性别、婚育状况和周边人群生育情况（χ2=5.83、15.29、23.04,P〈0.05）。结论：性别、婚育状况、周边人群生育情况是对生育意愿影响较大的三个因素,其中周边人群生育情况的影响最明显,建议有关部门加强政策宣传和控制力度,稳步推进＂单独二孩＂生育政策。

Objective： To explore the willingness of having a second child and its influencing factors under two-child fertility policy for couples where either the husband or the wife is from a single child family among urban residents in Chongqing. Methods： A total of 877 urban residents in five districts/counties of Chongqing were recruited by a multistage probability sampling and a questionnaire survey were conducted between Jan.and Mar. ,2014. The SAS9.13 software was used to analyze the data. Results： There were some differences in the willingness of having a second child among people with different characteristics, such as the nation （x2 = 0.037）, educational level （x2 = 15.85）, marital status （x2 = 9.82） and occupation （X2=18.98, P all 〈0.05）. The results of regression analysis showed that the gender （x2 =5.83）, marital status （X2 =15.29） and fertility status of surrounding people （x2 =23.04） were three important factors of people＇s willingness of having a second child （P all 〈0.05）. Conclusion： The gender, marital status and fertility status of surrounding people have more effects on people＇s willingness of having a second child, and the last one has the most. It is suggested that the government should enhance the publicity of fertility policy in order to steadily promote two-child fertility policy for couples where either the husband or the wife is from a single child family.