房地产价格波动对居民消费的影响研究——基于30个省市自治区的面板数据

Research of house price fluctuation's influence on citizen consuming——panel data based on 30 provinces

理论上,房价的上涨会通过财富效应增加居民消费,但由于我国房地产市场发展尚不成熟,房价与消费之间的关系具有不确定性。本文根据总体房地产调控政策的取向考察房价波动对消费的影响,实证结果表明房价上涨对消费的拉动作用有限,甚至产生抑制效应。结合房价波动影响消费的传导机制,本文提出要增加中低档商品房和保障性住房的供给、发展住房增值贷款以及保持房地产调控政策的连贯性等政策建议。

In theory, housing prices will increase household consumption by the wealth effect, because China＇s real estate market is not yet mature, the relationship between house prices and consumer is uncertainty now. Based on the orientation of the overall real estate control policies, the impact of price fluctuations on consumption is examined in this paper, empirical results show that a limited role in boosting house prices on consumption, and even inhibitory effect. Combined with the transmission mechanism of price fluctuations affecting the consumption, we propose to increase the supply of medium and low commercial housing and affordable housing, develop housing loans, and maintain continuity of value-added real estate control policies, etc.