相对资源承载力模型的扩展与实证

Model Extensions and Empirical Analysis of the Relative Carrying Capacity of Resources

基于系统理论和可持续发展理论,将人口、资源、环境、经济与社会系统的相对资源承载力纳入到一个分析框架,对相对资源承载力模型进行2点扩展:1将已有研究的3维、4维模型扩展为一个包含人口资源、自然资源、经济资源、环境资源、社会资源5个子系统的相对资源承载力模型;2在自然资源子系统中土地资源基础上,加入了水资源和能源资源两个重要指标。其次以新疆为研究区,应用扩展后的模型分别选取中国、西北5省、西部12省、东部沿海经济发达10省区四个参照区,分析了新疆1978-2011年相对资源承载力演化过程和2011年的新疆相对资源承载力状况。结果显示:1新疆总体处于人口承载相对富余的状态;2以2001年和2009年为两个拐点,可将新疆相对资源承载力变化大体分为稳步上升期、动荡期和陡峭上升期三个阶段;3自然资源是新疆人口的主要承载资源;42011年,在西北5省中,新疆综合承载力位于第2,自然资源和社会资源优势明显;在西部12省,新疆综合承载力位于第7,社会资源略有优势;新疆综合资源承载力仅相当于东部沿海经济发达10省市综合承载力的5.83%,只有自然资源承载力高于10省市平均水平。表明新疆相对资源承载力的富余是以自然资源尤其是能源资源的消耗为前提的,因此新疆在可持续发展中更需重视环境资源、经济资源和社会资源的提升。通过实证分析,扩展后的模型能够比较真实反映各研究区域承载力的变动情况,为承载力定量化分析及其承载力贡献因素差异提供了有说服力的研究思路。

Based on system theory and sustainable development theory,coalesced the relative resources canrying capacity of population,resources,environment,economy and social system into an analysis framework,analyzed the necessity to extend the relative resources carrying capacity model,and made two change：①）the original 3D,4D model has be extended to a relative resources carrying capacity model including population,natural resources,economic resources,environment and resources,social resources of five subsystems; ②）on the basis of natural resources subsystem of land resources,added the water and energy resources as two important indicators.Then the paper analyzed the relative resources carrying capacity evolution process from 1978 to 2011 in Xinjiang using the extended model,and analyzed the relative resources carrying capacity of five provinces in northwest,twelve provinces in western and ten provinces in eastern coastal in 2011.Results showed that：①overall it is in a surplus state of carrying capacity in Xinjiang; ②taking 2001 and 2001 as two inflection point,the change of relative resources carrying capacity of Xinjiang in general can be divided into steady rise,turbulence and steep slope of the three stages; ③natural resources is the main resources.④in the year of 2011,comprehensive carrying capacity in Xinjiang is in the second of the northwest five provinces,and the advantage of natural resource and social resource is obvious; Xinjiang is ranked in the seven of twelve provinces in the west,having the advantages of social resources and is equal to 5.83％ compared to the ten provinces in eastern; natural resources carrying capacity in Xinjiang is higher than the average level in ten provinces.The rich relative resources carrying capacity of Xinjiang,especially natural resources carrying capacity is based on the premise of the consumption of natural resources,especially energy resources,so more attention should be paid to the sustainable development about environmental resources,economic resources and social resources.The empirical analysis shows that：the extended model can more reflect the changes of the carrying capacity of the study area,and that can provides more convincing thought for quantitative analysis of carrying capacity and its contributing factors.