基于协商的虚拟企业完工风险管理

Negotiation Based Completion Risk Management for Virtual Enterprise

针对虚拟企业中盟主与盟员企业之间存在信息不对称的情况,研究了满足项目费用投资和子项目时序约束条件下的项目完工风险问题.考虑到各子项目的工期受盟主分配费用的影响,根据虚拟企业分布式决策的特点,提出了一种新的基于协商的费用—工期完工风险管理框架,并设计了三种让步策略,从而满足按期完工概率的要求,达到控制项目风险的目的.该协商框架分为2层,上层盟主和下层盟员企业.盟主首先给盟员分配资金,盟员根据所分配的资金确定子项目的三点完工时间,盟主收到盟员的响应后,基于计划评审法(program evaluation and review technique,PERT)对整个项目进行评价.最后通过算例分析了不同让步策略下的协商情况,结果表明该协商框架能有效管理完工风险.

The completion risk problem for a project is studied under the constraints of project investment and precedence of subprojects in the case where the owner and partners in a virtual enterprise （VE） have asymetric information. In view of how each subproject＇s completion time is affected by allocated cost from the owner, and by the distribution feature of decisionmaking in VE, a novel costtime based completion risk management framework by negotiation is proposed to meet completion probability requirements and control project risk. At the same time, three concession tactics are designed. The framework has two levels： the toplevel owner, and the baselevel partners. The partners determine the three-estimate times based on allocated cost from the owner, and then feed them back to the owner. After receiving partners＇ responses, the owner evaluates them based on program evaluation and review technique （PERT）. Finally, a numerical example is studied under these three tactics, and the results show that this framework can achieve effective completion risk management.