上海市在婚户籍人口二胎生育意愿及其影响因素的研究

Fertility Preference of the Second Birth of Married Population and Its Impacting Factors in Shanghai

目的：了解上海市在婚人群的二胎生育意愿,并探索其潜在的影响因素。方法：随机抽取上海市17个区县8 507名20~50岁在婚户籍人口进行二胎生育意愿调查,收集个人背景、经济状况等资料进行二胎生育意愿的影响因素分析。结果：在不考虑是否有政策约束时,35.16%的对象表示愿意生育二胎。现有孩子数为0个、文化程度高、家庭收入高的对象更倾向于选择生2个孩子,而年龄较大、健康状况较差、出生于上海本地、没有老人提供帮助的对象则不愿意生育二胎。结论：上海市在婚人群的二胎生育意愿不高。除生育政策外,个人背景、经济能力、社会文化等多方面因素制约着在婚人群的二胎生育意愿。

Objective： To understand married people＇s fertility preference on the second birth in Shanghai, and to explore its potential influencing factors. Methods： A total of 8 507 married people aged 20-50 years were recruited from 17 districts or counties of Shanghai, China. The fertility preference of the second birth and demographic characteristics of the subjects were investigated. Results： Without considering family planning policy, 35.16% of the subjects would like to have two children. People who had no child, with a higher education level and higher levels of family incomes tend to prefer having a second birth. And people who were older, born in Shanghai, with poorer health, or without help offered by eider relatives preferred having only one child. Conclusion： Married people＇s fertility preference of the second fetus in Shanghai is not high. In addition to family planning policy, personal background, economic ability, and social culture are associated with their fertility preference on the second birth.