2014年国际战略形势评析:怎一个“乱”字了得?

An Assessment of the International Situation in 2014: A Turbulent Year

2014年国际战略形势的主要特点可以用一个"乱"字概括,包括世界经贸活动持续低迷、发展不均衡加剧,国际油价暴跌、与之相关的"阴谋论"满天飞;"伊斯兰国"突然崛起,马航两度发生客机空难,国际恐怖袭击地域扩散、呈全球开花态势;乌克兰危机继续发酵、俄美欧关系陷入"新冷战",东海南海局势持续紧张;苏格兰独立公投震惊英伦、巴基斯坦等国政局持续动荡、"弗格森案"引起的骚乱席卷全美、奥巴马政府赢了经济却输了中期选举、台湾"九合一"选举国民党惨败;以及"埃博拉病毒"肆虐、日本与印尼等多地火山喷发、斯里兰卡突发泥石流,等等,不一而足。国际战略形势之所以出现严重的混乱与失序,主要反映国际格局和世界秩序正处在大变动、大调整过程中,旧秩序尚未退出,新秩序远未建成。预计世界乱局还将持续一个历史时段,并将催生新的国际格局与世界秩序。

The main feature of the 2014 international strategic situation can be summarized by one word— 'disorder',such as the world economic / trade activities have been remaining in downturn,global imbalanced development becoming more serious,and international oil prices plummeting accompanying with wide spreading of the relative 'conspiracy rumors'; the 'Islamic State'has been suddenly rising,Malaysia flights twice crashed down,and international terrorist attacks have been further spreading in the world; the Ukrainian crisis has been continuously fermenting,and the situation in the East and South China sea remains tense; the Obama administration has lost the midterm elections despite its economic achievements,and the Taiwan KMT met serious defeat in local elections; the'Ebola virus'continues to spread,volcano eruptions occurred in Japan and Indonesia,and there happened disastrous landslides in Sri Lanka. These serious riots and disorder clearly show that the international power configuration and international order are still undergoing great changes and major adjustments. It is expected that the world's mess situation will continue for a certain historical period,and it will help formulating a new world order and international configuration.