摘要
为了确保崛起时的良好周边环境,大国需要争夺周边小国,使其采取不敌对政策,与大国合作,参与大国主导的地区机制甚至与大国结盟。因此,采取怎样的地区战略争夺周边小国成为大国在崛起过程中需要解决的核心问题之一。作者认为大国崛起时会让周边小国产生正负两方面的心态变化。正面心态的出现要求大国予以积极回应,而负面心态导致的不安全感会使周边小国采取投靠强者、加入其他地区集团或者彼此结盟的方式求得自身的安全和发展。大国的地区战略应当针对这些变化进行调整,实现良性的战略互动。大国的地区战略应包含四个基本构成要素,包括明示战略目标、分享崛起收益、提供安全承诺和供给地区机制等。大国还需努力减少外部干扰变量的影响,并谨慎使用武力。进入21世纪以来,俄罗斯走上了重新崛起之路,为争夺周边小国采取了地区一体化战略。但俄罗斯的地区战略因目标模糊、连贯性不足和缺乏有效地区机制等问题,并未取得期待的效果。俄罗斯的经验教训为中国提供了借鉴。
To ensure a good neighborhood environment,a rising great powers needs to win the heart of small neighboring states to make them take no hostile policies,cooperate with it and join its regional regime orchestrated by great powers.Therefore,taking what regional strategy to compete for small adjacent states has become the core issue of what a rising great power needs to solve in the process of rising.The author argues that small states would have both positive and negative feelings.The great powers should response actively when facing the small states' positive feeling.While insecurity from negative feelings may tempt small states around to join the superpower's camp or other groups or establish their own alliance for security and development,the rising great power ought to correspondingly adjust their regional strategy in order to achieve benign strategic interactions.The author points out that the regional strategy of rising great powers should include four basic elements,including expressing strategic targets,sharing income from rising,making security commitment and offering a regional regime.Since the 21 th century,Russia has been on track for a rising road,pursuing an integration strategy in order to win small states around.The article analyzed the success and failure of Russia's integration strategy,which could benefit China.
出处
《世界经济与政治》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第1期40-60,156-157,共21页
World Economics and Politics