2002-2011年上海市浦东新区居民大肠癌发病情况及其趋势分析

Occurrence of colorectal cancer among residents in Pudong New Area of Shanghai,2002-2011

目的分析上海市浦东新区居民2002-2011年大肠癌(colorectal cancer,CRC)发病情况并预测其发展趋势,为CRC防治策略提供参考。方法以2002-2011年上海市浦东新区常住户籍居民为研究对象,按世界标准人口标化率(age-standardized rate,ASR)计算CRC标化发病率,采用泊松近似法比较年龄和性别率值间的差异,并应用年均变化百分率(annual percent change,APC)计算其年均率值并进行趋势分析。结果浦东新区2002-2011年CRC新发10 779例,其中男5 749例,女5 030例;男性世界标化发病率(24.60/10万人年)高于女性(19.05/10万人年),标化发病比例为1.29∶1。男性CRC标化发病率上升趋势明显,APC=1.31%,P=0.021;女性CRC标化发病率有下降趋势,APC=-1.29%,P=0.018;男女合计标化发病率趋势差异无统计学意义,APC=0.20%,P=0.235。居民≤35岁CRC发病率相对较低,>35岁粗发病率呈明显上升趋势,z=77.94,P<0.01。结论 CRC防控应关注重点人群,并采取有效措施积极探讨CRC发病相关危险因素,从而降低CRC的发病率。

OBJECTIVE To analyze the incidence rates of primary CRC （colorectal cancer） among residents in Pud- ong New Area of Shanghai from 2002 to 2011. METHODS The residents of Pudong New Area in Shanghai were recrui- ted in this study from 2002 to 2011. The difference of rates among gender and age were analyzed by Poisson approxima- tion method,and the mortality of CRC was calculated and these rates were standardized by the world population. RE- SULTS Among the 10 779 CRC cases occurred between 2002 and 2011, 5 749 cases were males and 5 030 cases were fe- males. ASR （age-standardized rate） of incidence in males （24.60/100 000 person-year） was higher than that in females （19.05/100 000 person-year） ,and the ratio was 1.29 ： 1. The standardized rate of CRC in male had a obvious upward trend （APC= 1.31% , P=0.021 ） , the rate in female had a significant downward trend （APC=- 1.29 % , P = 0.018） , and that of the total had no statistical significance （APC=0.20% ,P=0. 235）. There was a obvious upward trend in residents after 35 years old in Pudong New Area （z=77. 94,P〈0.01）. CONCLUSION It is necessary for CRC＇s control and prevention that we should pay more attention on the susceptible population,and prevention for CRC risk factors and effec- tive measures should be taken action.