中国农业温室气体排放量测算及影响因素研究

Agricultural greenhouse gases emissions and influencing factors in China

农业生产过程所产生的温室气体在全球生产活动温室气体排放总量中占有很大比例,因此对农业温室气体的排放量进行测算并分析其影响因素,对实现农业节能减排有重要意义。本文基于1993―2011年中国农业生产的相关统计数据,借鉴前人关于农业生产中各种温室气体排放源排放系数的研究成果,测算了中国农业生产过程中的CH4、N2O和CO2排放量,并分析了影响因素。结果表明,CH4排放量基本平稳波动不大,N2O排放量从1993年的93.21万t波动增加到2011年的120.51万t,农业生产资料CO2排放量由15 626.98万t增加到31 258.10万t。种植业CO2排放主要分为土壤排放和生产资料排放,土壤CO2排放与大气温度、土壤温度、地表温度和土壤水分有关,生产资料CO2排放主要是由化肥和农药造成的;种植业CH4、N2O排放原因较为复杂,还有待进一步研究;动物肠道发酵CH4、N2O排放的影响因素主要取决于动物种类、饲料特性、饲养方式和粪便管理方式等。

Greenhouse gases produced by the process of agricultural production plays large proportion of total amount of greenhouse gases emissions of worldwide production activities. Therefore, estimating agricultural greenhouse gases emissions, analyzing the influencing factors and discussing the achievement of agricultural energy conservation have important significance. Using the statistical data related to Chinese agricultural production in 1993-2011, the research estimated emissions of CH4, N2 O and CO2 generated by agricultural production in China and analyzed the influencing factors based on previous research results on emission factors in agricultural production of greenhouse gases emissions. The results showed that, CH4 emission from agriculture production in China was basically stable with small fluctuations, while N2 O emission increased from 93.21？104 tons in 1993 to 120.51？104 tons in 2011, and CO2 emission of agricultural production materials increased from 15 626.98？104 tons to 31 258.10？104 tons. CO2 emissions of planting industry were mainly divided into soil emissions and emissions from production materials. Soil CO2 emission was mainly related to atmospheric temperature, soil temperature, surface temperature and soil moisture. CO2 emissions of production materials were mainly caused by fertilizers and pesticides. CH4, N2 O emissions of planting industry were more complicated, it remained to be further studied. The influencing factors of CH4, N2 O emissions of animal enteric fermentation largely depended on type, characteristics of animal feed, rearing method and manure management methods.