基于云模型的船舶溢油风险综合评价研究

Risk Comprehensive Assessment of Ship Oil Spill Based on Cloud Model

采用云模型和德尔菲法为每个评价指标赋权重云,利用正态云对评价标准进行云转换得到评价等级云模型,应用正态云拟合运算规则得到综合评价结果云.通过实例分析,表明该评价模型能更好方便而准确地解决船舶溢油风险综合评价过程中的模糊性和随机性量化问题.

In order to solve the problem of fuzziness and randomness in risk comprehensive assessment of ship oil spill,the comprehensive assessment cloud models was built based on cloud model.A 2-level-structure assessment model with 4first class indexes,12 secondary ones was set up based on the principle of index system.The first class indexes include the ship factor,crew factor,meteorological factor,hydrologic factor,and the second class includes ship type,tonnage of ship etc.The weight cloud corresponding to every index was determined by cloud model and Delphi.Optimal cloud model of assessment criteria was found by normal cloud generator.Finally,the comprehensive assessment result was got by normal cloud fitting algorithm.The assessment model can more easily and accurately solve fuzziness and randomness quantification problems in risk comprehensive assessment of ship oil spill through example analysis.