路侧停车区域非机动车冲突概率分布

Traffic conflict probability distribution for non-motor vehicles at curb parking area

为揭示路侧停车对非机动车骑行行为的影响机理,结合现场调查数据开展了路侧停车区域非机动车与机动车之间严重性冲突判别、非机动车避险行为及严重性冲突概率分布模型研究.提出以非完全制动距离作为非机严重性冲突判别指标,获得研究路段非机严重性冲突及避险行为数据,得出减速是最主要的避险方式;构建了非机严重性冲突的泊松概率分布模型,提出了以正态分布为基础的骑行安全性判定模型及临界值计算标准,并以调查路段进行了安全性评估.

To bring insight into the non-motor vehicle ＇s riding behavior mechanism influenced by curb parking,judgment criterion of serious traffic conflict between non-motor vehicle and vehicle（ STCNV）,nonmotor vehicle＇s averting danger behaviors and the probability distribution model of the STCNV were put forward and studied based on the survey data on scene. Firstly,non-complete braking distance was presented as the judgment index of the STCNV; the data of traffic conflicts and non-motor vehicle＇s averting danger behaviors was collected at the curb parking area; and the deceleration behavior was concluded as the main averting danger behavior. Then,the Poisson probability distribution model of the STCNV was constructed; the safety judgment model for non-motor vehicle＇s riding and its critical value calculation standard was proposed on the bias of the Normal distribution,and the safety evaluation was implemented for the survey sections.