疾病预防控制对人群期望寿命提升贡献的测算结果

Results about the contributions of disease prevention and control to the promotion of life expectancy

目的 :定量明确疾病预防控制工作对期望寿命提升的贡献,并对2011—2020年的贡献趋势作出预测。方法 :收集华东某省1950—2010年分年龄组的人口、发病和死亡数据资料,依据课题组形成的疾病预防控制对人群期望寿命提升贡献的测算思路、步骤进行测算。结果 :1950—2010年,华东某省期望寿命提升26.59岁,疾病预防控制的贡献高达77.92%,其中传染病防控贡献3.57%、意外伤害防控贡献5.87%、孕产妇保健贡献3.61%、慢性病防控贡献为-1.73%。2011—2020年自然趋势下,传染病防控和孕产妇保健对期望寿命的提升仍然保持"正贡献",但已相对较小,慢性病和意外伤害对期望寿命提升的"负贡献"加剧。结论 :疾病预防控制工作对人群期望寿命的提升贡献巨大,有力证明了"预防为主"卫生工作方针的重要性。

Objective ：This research aimed to clarify the contributions of diseases prevention and control quantitatively to the promotion of life expectancy,and make prediction about the contribution trend from 2011 to 2020. Methods ：Population and disease morbidity,mortality data of a province in Eastern China were collected by age group from 1950 to 2010,and the contributions of diseases prevention and control were estimated to the promotion of life expectancy. Results ：The life expectancy of a province has been improved by 26.59 years from 1950 to 2010. The contributions of diseases prevention and control have reached up to 77.92%,among which the control of infectious diseases,accidental injuries,maternal diseases,and chronic diseases accounted for 3.57%,5.87%,3.61% and-1.73%,respectively. Under natural tendency from 2011 to 2020,the contributions of infectious diseases control and maternal health care will remain ＂positive contribution＂,but will be relatively small. The trends of ＂negative contributions＂ of chronic diseases and accidental injuries would aggravate. Conclusion ：The disease prevention and control has made significant contributions to the promotion of life expectancy,which provides strong evidence to the importance of the health policy of ＂prioritizing prevention＂.