基于GERT的武器装备维修备件订货间隔期预测

Prediction for Ordering Interval of Armament's Maintenance Spare Parts Based on GERT

由于武器装备维修备件的需求是随机波动的,订货间隔期的准确预测就成为了一个难点。针对这样一个随机波动的需求系统,提出了利用GERT随机网络模型对其进行描述,进而求出随机波动需求的订货间隔期的解析表达式,解决了不确定性需求的订货间隔期的预测问题,为武器装备维修备件的科学管理提供数据支持。通过实例验证表明,GERT随机网络模型是解决武器装备维修备件订货间隔期的一种有效手段和方法。

As the weapon equipment repair spare parts demand is random,so it is difficult to accurately predict the order interval. For such a demand systems of random fluctuations,this paper proposes the use of GERT random network model to describe it,and then derives the analytic expression of random order interval in demand,solves the prediction problem of uncertain demand’s order interval. It provides data support for the scientific management of weapon equipment repair parts.Experiments show that,GERT random network model is an effective method to make sure the ordering interval of armament’s maintenance spares.