中国养老保险制度对城镇居民消费的影响——基于OLG模型和2012年中国省际横截面数据的实证分析

The Impacts of China's Basic Old-Age Insurance System on the Consumptions of Urban Residents——From An OLG model and Inter- province Cross- section Data in 2012's China

通过建立世代交叠模型探讨我国现行基本养老保险制度对城镇居民消费的影响,指出在现行的现收现付制和完全基金制混合模式下,养老保险对居民消费的影响是有两种不同的效应:人口年龄结构的变化和资金成本的变化。尤其是人口老龄化会改变制度约束从而抑制消费。根据2012年中国省际横截面数据实证分析说明,城镇离退休人员养老金支出对城镇居民消费具有负面影响,说明人口老龄化可能已经开始削弱养老保险制度的社会保障功能。

On an Overlapping Generation approach,the paper discuss the impacts of China＇s basic old- age insurance system on China＇s urban residents＇ consumption.The existing hybrid system,a combination of＂ pay as you go＂ and＂ fully funded＂,the impacts of insurance system on consumption involve two different effects ——the change in age structure of population and the change in capital costs.Population aging alters the constraint of the system and inhibits consumption.Empirically shown in inter- province cross- section data of2012＇s China,the pension expenditure of urban retired has a negative impact on the consumption of urban residents.This discovery indicates that population aging probably undermines the social security role of the basic old- age insurance system.