基于熵组合赋权的“两型社会”演进规律模型及其应用——以“京津冀”经济区为例

The “Two-Oriented Society” Path Evolution Model on Entropy Combination Weights and Its Applications: A Case Study of “Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei” Economic Zone

在坚持以人为本、可持续发展和高频指标原则的基础上,建立了基于科学发展观的“两型社会”评价指标体系.用熵组合赋权方法确定权重,建立“两型社会”综合评价模型、协调度和演进规律模型,并对“京津冀”“两型社会”发展状况进行了分析.文章的创新特色一是将人均绿色GDP、人均绿地面积等反映以人为本的指标纳入“两型社会”评价指标体系,并在原有“两型社会”“经济-资源-环境-社会”评价系统的基础上加入体现以人为本的人文系统.二是建立了既反映专家意愿又反映指标客观信息的熵组合赋权综合评价模型.三是建立了体现科学发展观协调要求的协调度模型和演进规律模型,动态的研究“两型社会”的发展状况.四是研究结果表明2006～2011年“京津冀”“两型社会”总体发展呈上升趋势,北京和天津的演进路径为先发展再协调转为协调和发展相互促进,河北“两型社会”发展主要是走先发展再协调的道路.

Based on the concept of people-oriented, sustainable development and high frequency indications principles, we establish the ＂Two-oriented Society＂ Evaluation index system of scientific development concept. This paper establishes the ＂Two-oriented Society＂ Evaluation model, path evolution model and analyzes the ＂Two-oriented Society＂ conditions for ＂Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei＂ economic zone. The innovation and features of this paper came from the four aspects： firstly, through putting green GDP per capita, green area per capita into ＂Two-oriented Society＂ Evaluation index system, what＇s more putting human systems based on people-oriented into original ＂Two-oriented Society＂ evaluation ＂economic- resources-environment-society＂ system. Secondly the paper establishes the Entropy Combination Weights Evaluation model which indicates the experts＇ ideas and the objective information of the index. Thirdly through establishing the degree coordination model and path evolution model which reflects the scientific concept, this paper can dynamically research the development of the ＂Two-oriented Society＂. Fourthly the empirical results showed that ＂Two-oriented Society＂ conditions of ＂Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei＂ economic zone presents an upward trend. The path evolution of Beijing and Tianjin changes from the model of ＂first developing and then coordinating＂ to the model of ＂mutual encouragement of developing and coordinating＂, and the path evolution of Hebei seems from developing to coordinating.