采用藤Copula构建风电场风速相依模型

Modeling Multiple Wind Speed Dependency Structure by Vine-Copula in Wind Farm

提出了采用基于Pair-Copula分解的藤Copula理论建立多元风速相依模型的方法。该方法首先考虑了风速分布的随机性,并计及风电场内部风机群风速间的相关性,采用Canonical藤描述Pair-Copula分解的逻辑结构,通过求解Canonical藤结构中的Pair-Copula概率密度函数PDF(probabilitydensity function),得到高维联合分布下的Pair-Copula多元风速相依模型;再对某实际风电场进行实证分析,得到了风电场内部6个风机群间风速的Pair-Copula联合概率密度函数JPDF(joint probability density function);最后在风电场风速相关结构的问题上进一步研究分析,为下一步建立混合Copula函数模型提供思路。

Based on the theory of the decomposition of Pair-Copula, vine-Copula is introduced to depict the multiple wind speed dependency structures in this paper. This method takes the correlation among the internal groups wind speed sequences in a wind farm into account besides the randomness of the wind speed distributions, the logical structure of Pair-Copula is dscribed by choosing Canonical Vine. By solving the PDF of Pair-Copula in the Canonical Vine structure, a multiple wind speed dependency model is constructed. A study wind farm is given to perform the empirical analysis, achieving joint probability density function （JPDF） between the six wind turbine groups inthe Canonical Vine structure. Finally,a further research on the problem of the multiple wind speed dependency structures is built up, which can provide novel ideas for modeling the dependency structures with mixed Copula function as well.