基于主成分聚类分析法的塔里木河流域生态脆弱性评价——以巴音郭楞蒙古自治州为例

Evaluation on ecological vulnerability of Tarim River Basin based on principal component-clustering analysis——Taking Mongolia Autonomous Prefecture of Bayingolin as example

以南疆塔里木河流域的巴音郭楞蒙古自治州为研究区域,通过对影响当地生态环境脆弱性的因素进行分析,构建适合巴州的生态脆弱性评价指标体系,指标主要包括人口自然增长率、地膜使用量、环境保护支出、机械总动力、有效灌溉面积、化肥施用量、人均纯收入、人均生产总值、固定资产投资总额、森林覆盖率、牧草地年均面积减少面积、农业引水量、未利用地年均面积减少面积、年均沙尘暴出现次数、沙漠化危害严重的耕地面积15个指标。利用SPSS20.0软件,采用主成分分析法得到生态脆弱性指标权重值,通过生态环境脆弱度公式计算得到生态脆弱性得分,在主成分分析法所提取的主要指标基础上进行聚类分析综合确定生态脆弱性等级。结果表明,尉犁县为极强度脆弱区,库尔勒为强度脆弱区,且末县、轮台县和若羌县为中度脆弱区,和静县、和硕县、博湖县和焉耆县为轻度脆弱区。根据生态脆弱性评价的结果提出相应的对策建议,可以为当地政府在制定生态环境保护政策方面提供理论借鉴。

This paper took Mongolia Autonomous Prefecture of Bayingolin in southern Xinjiang Tarim River Basin as study area,built up the ecological vulnerability evaluation index system for Bayinguolin Mongolia State,according to the factors affecting the local ecological environment vulnerability.The system mainly chose 15 important factors,including natural population growth rate,used amount of film,cost of environmental protection,total power of agricultural machine,effective irrigation area,fertilizer input,per capita net income,per capita GDP,investment in fixed assets,forest coverage reduction rate,area of grassland reduction annually,agricultural water consumption,area of unutilized land reduction,frequency of sandstorm,area of cultivated land under the threat of desert.The weights of index were calculated base on principal component analysis by SPSS20.The ecological vulnerability scores were calculated by the ecological environment vulnerability degree formula,and then based on principal component-cluster analysis,the level of ecological vulnerability was comprehensively determined.The results showed that the Yuli County could be regarded as extreme strong vulnerable area,Luntai County,Qiemo County and Ruoqiang County as moderate ones,Kuerle City as the strong one,Hejing County,Heshuo County,Bohu County and Yanqi County as the mild vulnerable ones.According to the result of ecological vulnerability assessment,corresponding countermeasures were put forward to provide theory reference for the local government to make ecological environment protection policy.