基于SEM的公众太阳能光伏发电认知和采纳意愿的实证研究

Empirical study on the public's cognition and willingness to adopt solar photovoltaic power generation based on a SEM Model

当今世界,化石能源日益短缺、能源危机加剧,作为新能源和清洁能源的太阳能光伏发电应运而生,世界各国都加快了太阳能开发利用的步伐。公众作为太阳能光伏发电的采纳主体,直接影响着太阳能的开发利用及光伏发电的推广速度。因此,开展公众对太阳能光伏发电认知和采纳意愿的研究具有重要的现实意义。本文基于武汉地区330份有效调查问卷数据,采用结构方程模型对公众太阳能光伏发电认知和采纳意愿进行了实证研究。在理论分析和因子分析的基础上,提出了太阳能光伏发电认知与采纳意愿的概念模型和研究假设,构建了结构方程模型(SEM)并对概念模型和研究假设进行了实证检验。研究结果表明:1政府政策对公众的节能意识、太阳能光伏发电设备的选择倾向和采纳意愿均具有显著的积极影响,其中对公众的节能意识影响最大;2公众节能意识对其太阳能光伏发电的认知与太阳能光伏发电设备的采纳意愿产生显著的积极影响,其中对采纳意愿的影响最大;3公众的节能意识和公众认知对其选择倾向产生的直接影响未达到统计学显著水平,且公众认知和选择倾向对其采纳意愿产生的直接影响也未达到统计学显著水平。最后,基于上述研究结论,本文提出了相应的政策建议。

Under the circumstances of the global increasing shortage of oil,gas,coal and other fossil fuels,countries have accelerated the development and utilization of solar energy. Since solar energy resources are abundant and widely distributed,they are the most promising renewable energy in the 21 stcentury. Nevertheless,the application of household type of solar power generation equipment requires the general public＇s involvement and active participation. In the promotion process of household solar photovoltaic generation facilities,as one of the main stakeholders,the general public will exert important influences on the adoption and application of this solar power generation system in the aspects of their energy-saving awareness,cognition and selection tendencies. Meanwhile,the government,who plays the role of guidance and advocator of new energy technologies,will also affect the promotion and application of this system in the aspect of its policy orientations to some extent. Therefore,it is particularly necessary to carry out studies on public＇s cognition and adoption willingness for solar photovoltaic power generation. Based on the data from a 330-questionnaire survey in the Wuhan region,this paper used the Structural Equation Modeling to analyze the public＇s cognition and adoption willingness to adopt solar-photovoltaic power generation facilities. Firstly,this paper put forward the conceptual model and hypotheses based on the theoretical and factor analyses. Secondly,a Structural Equation Model was built,followed by an empirical study. The results indicate that：（1）government policies can significantly affect the public＇s energy saving awareness,selection tendency and adoption willingness,with the biggest influence on energy saving awareness;（2）the public＇s energy saving awareness has a positive effect on the public＇s cognition and adoption willingness,with a bigger impact on the latter;（3）the direct influence of the public＇s energy saving awareness and public＇s cognition on their selection tendency has not reached the level of significance,and the direct influence of the public＇s cognition and selection tendency on their adoption willingness has not reached the level of significance neither. Finally,this paper proposes corresponding policy recommendations based on the above findings.