陕西省能源供给系统稳定性及其影响因素分析

The Stability of Shaanxi's Energy Supply System and Its Influencing Factors

基于影响能源供需的9个因素,应用C-D生产函数和STIRPAT方程,构建了能源供给稳定性模型。通过对陕西省1990—2011年的数据分析,得到:能源投资(0.8293)、碳排放强度(-0.2373)、人均GDP(-0.2876)、产业结构(-2.1336)、人口规模(-2.4144)是影响陕西省能源供给系统稳定性的主要因素。能源投资增加将提高现阶段能源供给的稳定性,但影响长期能源供给的稳定性。而人口规模、第二产业产值比重等四因素则会降低能源供给系统的稳定性。人均GDP是降低陕西省能源供给系统稳定性的主导因素,第二产业产值比重过高(55%),也是降低稳定性的主要因素。

Based on the nine factors that affect energy supply and demand, and C-D production function and STIRPAT equation, we constructed a model of energy supply stability. From the analysis of partial correlation, we know that there is multicollinearity in these factors which affects supply and demand of energy. Stepwise regression and ridge regression was used to eliminate multicollinearity for energy supply and demand equation respectively. Analysis the data of Shaanxi in the year of 1990-2010, we note that energy investment, carbon intensity, per capital GDP, industrial structure, population scale are the main factors affecting the stability of Shaanxi energy system. Their elasticity was 0.8293,- 0.2373,-0.2876,-2.1336, and-2.4144 respectively. This means that increasing energy investment, reducing the proportion of secondary industry output, per GDP carbon emission, population scale and economic growth will make Shaanxi＇ s energy stability better. Increased energy investment will improve the current stability of energy supply, and will affect the stability in long term. These four factors, carbon intensity, per capital GDP, industrial structure, population scale, will reduce the stability of the energy supply system. The dominant factor, which reduces the energy stability of Shaanxi Province, is per capital, and the high proportion of secondary industry is the major factor. During the period （1990-2010）, energy investment is the driving force to increase the energy stability of Shaanxi Province, but the factors to reduce the stability is different. We divide this period into 3 stages, according to the main factor affecting the stability in different stages. They are high secondary industry stage, population scale and per capital GDP stage and per capital stage. Comparing Shaanxi with eastern provinces, we concluded that there is great potential to improve energy stability by adjusting industry structure and reducing carbon emission intensity in Shaanxi Province.