摘要
随着全球气候变化加剧,极端降水事件对人类社会造成严重影响。基于江西省信江流域1960—2005年逐日降水数据,利用ClimDex模型与集合经验模态分解法（EEMD）分析信江流域极端降水指数时空分布特征。结果表明：各类极端降水指数呈不同程度上升趋势,其中以极端降水量（R95P）上升趋势最为显著。经EEMD分解得出各项极端降水指数的IMF分量,具体表现出2.56~2.88a,5.11~6.57a,9.20~11.50a和22.59~36.48a的准周期,其中以IMF1方差贡献率最大,IMF3的振荡周期较为显著。在3种典型年的极端降水事件空间分布上,五日最大降水量（RX5day）和极端降水量（R95P）呈中部略高于周边地区,且极端多水年高于平水年和极端少水年,表明流域中部地区极端多水年的极端降水事件发生频率相对较高。
Under the background of global climate change, extreme precipitation events have been happening, which caused a serious influence and damage to human living. Spatiotemporal distributions of extreme precip- itation indices were quantitatively analyzed using ClimDex model and ensemble empirical mode decomposition （EEMD） based on the data of daily precipitation in Xinjiang basin, Jiangxi Province from 1960 to 2005. The results showed that all kinds of extreme precipitation indices presented an upward trend at different degrees, especially for extreme precipitation （R95P）. The IMFs of extreme preeipitation indices showed the quasi- periods of 2.56~2.88 years, 5.11~6.57 years, 9.20-11. 50 years, 22.59~36.48 years, and the largest contribution belongs to IMF1 variance, the IMF3 oscillation period was more significant. A comparison of three extreme typical precipitation event years for five-day extreme precipitation （RXSday） and extreme precipitation （R95P） revealed a slightly higher ＇values＇ in the central basin than the surrounding areas, and the two indices were higher in the extremely rainy years than in normal and extremely dry years, extreme precipitation events in extremely rainy years had a relative high occurrence frequency in the central basin.
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第4期189-194,200,共7页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家自然科学青年基金项目"鄱阳湖水位条件对草滩湿地优势植被的影响"(41301035)
