农户种粮规模行为决策及其影响因素分析——基于全国4719份农户抽样调查数据

Behavior decision of farmer's grain acreage size and its affecting factors: Based on 4719 national household sample survey data

基于全国21个省69个县219个村4 719份农户抽样调查数据,分析了农户种粮规模行为趋势,发现种粮户户主老龄化趋势严重,农户粮食作物种植面积有下降趋势,经济作物种植面积上升趋势明显,经济作物单位面积收益显著大于粮食作物。从户主个体特征、农户资源禀赋、其他各项收入、种粮补贴等方面选取15个变量,采用Logit模型分析农户种粮面积变化的影响因素,结果表明:资源禀赋有显著的正向影响,经济作物收入与自营工商业收入有负向影响,农户打工收入的影响并不显著,种粮补贴有正向的影响,但边际刺激作用并不是很大。

Using the sampling survey data of 4719 households from 219 villages of 69 counties in 21 provinces, this paper analyzed the trend of farmers’ grain growing behavior. It is found that the aging trend of the head of farm household is serious, grain acreage size is decreasing, economic crops acreage size is obviously increasing, and the unit acreage income of economic crops is much more than that of grain crops. Considering demographic features of the head of farm household, resource endowment of farm household, other incomes except grain income and grain subsidies, we chose 15 variables to do the empirical analysis, otherwise the logit model was adopted to analyze the factors affecting farmer’s grain acreage size. The results show that the resource endowment of farm household positively affects the grain acreage size, economic crops income and business income negatively affect the grain acreage size, the work income would not affect the grain acreage size, grain subsidies positively affect the grain acreage size, but the marginal effect is little.