中国参与全球价值链分工的程度及演变趋势——基于跨国投入—产出分析

China's Integration into the Global Value Chains:A Transnational Input-output Analysis

本文通过跨国投入—产出分析从中间品关联、增加值关联、投入—产出关联三个角度综合评估了中国参与全球价值链分工的程度及演变趋势。研究发现,中国以外国增加值比重衡量与世界的关联程度趋于上升,且高于以进口中间品比重衡量的程度。中国与美国、日本、韩国、中国台湾、德国的关联程度较高;但从趋势看,中国与美国、德国的关联程度在上升,与日本、韩国、中国台湾的关联程度在下降。中国大多数行业倾向于从较高收入经济体进口较多的增加值,也倾向于向后者出口较多的增加值。中国大多数行业基于产出和投入的价值链关联指数均超过1.5,关联指数上升的行业远多于下降的行业,表明中国已经通过产出供给和投入需求两个渠道非常深入地融入全球价值链。本文的研究为思考如何提升中国在全球价值链分工中的地位提供了实证基础,同时也为中国在有效推进区域经济一体化进程中如何进行经济伙伴与行业结构布局提供了决策参考。

Drawing upon the transnational input-output analysis, this paper quantifies the status quo and dynamics of Chinese integration into the global value chains （GVCs） via intermediate, value-added and input-output linkages. We find that the foreign value-added contents in China＇s products and services tend to increase, and the value-added-based GVCs integration is stronger than the intermediate-based one. China has much closer linkages with the US, Japan, Korea, Chinese Taiwan and Germany, but such linkages with the US and Germany are on the rise while those with Japan, Korea and Chinese Taiwan tend to drop. Most of Chinese sectors tend to import more value added and also export more value added to economies with higher income. For most of Chinese sectors, the output-and input-based linkage indices are above 1.5. This shows that China has already deeply integrated into the GVCs through output supply and input demand channels. This paper not only provides an empirical foundation for reflecting on how to upgrade China＇s location in the GVCs, but also offers policy suggestions for China optimizing the arrangement of economies and sectors when effectively promoting regional economic integration.