Decomposition Analysis of Carbon Emissions Growth of Tertiary Industry in Beijing

北京市服务业碳排放增长的分解分析（英文）

The output as well as carbon dioxide emissions of tertiary industry have increased continuously in Beijing. Therefore, the tertiary industry has become a new ifeld that needs to be explored for energy saving and emission reduction. This paper calculates the direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions of tertiary industry in Beijing from 2005 to 2012 using the input-output analysis method. The results indicate that both the direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions increased continuously and the latter grew more quickly than the former. The growth of the direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions of tertiary industry was decomposed, which showed that four factors inlfuence the growth of carbon emission of the tertiary industry, including the changes of industrial scale, industrial structure, energy consumption intensity and carbon coefifcient. The results show that the industrial scale advancement and the direct energy carbon coefifcient change promote the increase of direct carbon dioxide emissions, while the shift of industrial structure and the change of direct energy consumption intensity have the restrain on it. The industrial scale enlargement, industrial structure shift and the indirect energy carbon emission coefifcient change promote the growth of indirect carbon dioxide emissions, while the indirect energy consumption intensity change has a restrain.

随着北京市经济的发展,服务业产出占GDP的比例不断增加,其碳排放量也逐渐增长。因此,服务业成为北京市节能减排亟需开拓的新领域,受到越来越多的重视。本文首先对北京市2005-2012年服务业直接CO2排放量进行核算,然后运用投入产出模型对服务业间接CO2排放量进行核算,最后对服务业直接和间接CO2排放量的增长原因进行分解分析。得出以下结论:北京市服务业间接CO2排放量远远大于直接排放量,前者是后者的6倍多;直接以及间接CO2排放量都呈增长趋势,并且间接的增长速度要快于直接;直接CO2排放量增长的主要原因是产业规模增大和直接CO2排放强度变化,虽然产业结构和直接能源消费结构变化起到了抑制作用,但影响较小。间接CO2排放量增长的主要原因是产业规模增大、产业结构以及间接CO2排放强度变化,间接能源消费结构变化起到了抑制作用,但影响也较小。